Puterea intuiției în procesul de luare a deciziei în condiții de stres operațional
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.53477/2065-8281-24-12Keywords:
procesul de luare a deciziei, intuiție expert, stres, bias, euristic, proces natural de luare a deciziei.Abstract
Procesul de luare a deciziei reprezintă unul dintre cele mai de interes subiecte din domeniul științelor cognitive, fiind un concept care necesită o abordare complexă multi și interdisciplinară. Războiul modern presupune operații în medii caracterizate de un grad ridicat de incertitudine, cu multiple provocări, schimbări radicale și neașteptate ale situației, ceea ce necesită o bună cunoaștere a modului în care funcționează gândirea umană și a modului în care putem dezvolta procesele cognitive implicate în formularea unei decizii. Articolul își propune o scurtă analiză a procesului de luare a deciziilor de către liderii militari, în situațiile în care există factori stresori semnificativi și în care sunt necesare decizii rapide și intuitive. În acest scop, sunt prezentate principalele aspecte teoretice și practice pe care le întâlnim în literatura de specialitate, cu accent pe aplicațiile în domeniul militar. De asemenea, este prezentat conceptul de intuiție expert. Deși există încercări încă din Antichitate, studiul sistematic al acestui concept revoluționar începe la jumătatea secolului 20 și suscită un viu interes și în prezent, fiind subiectul unor vii dispute academice.
References
APA, American Psychological Association. 2024a. ”APA Dictionary of Psychology –decision making”. https://dictionary.apa.org/decision-making.
—. 2024b. ”APA Dictionary of Psychology – heuristic”. https://dictionary.apa.org/heuristic.
Banks, Adrian P., David M. Gamblin și Heather Hutchinson. 2020. Training Fast andFrugal Heuristics in Military Decision Making. Applied Cognitive Psychology 34 (3): 699-709. doi:10.1002/acp.3658.
Bonanno, George. 2005. ”Resilience in the Face of Potential Trauma.” Current Directions in Psychological Science 14 (3): 135-138. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.0963-7214.2005.00347.x.
Cader, Raffik, Steve Campbell și Don Watson. 2005. ”Cognitive Continuum Theory in nursing decision-making.” Journal of Advanced Nursing 49 (4): 397–405. doi:10.1111/j.1365-2648.2004.03303.x.
Calderwood, Roberta, Gary A. Klein și Beth W. Crandall. 1988. ”Time Pressure, Skill, and Move Quality in Chess.” The American Journal of Psychology 101 (4): 481-493. https://doi.org/10.2307/1423226.
Cambridge Dictionary. 2024. ”expertise.” https://dictionary.cambridge.org/dictionary/english/expertise.
Chase, William și Herbert Simon. 1973. ”The mind’s eye in chess.” În Visual information processing, de W. G. Chase (Ed.), 215–281. New York: Academic Press.
Cohen, Marvin, Jared Freeman și Bryan Thompson. 1998. ”Critical Thinking Skills in Tactical Decision Making: A Model and A Training Strategy.” doi:10.1037/10278-006.
Curran, Tim, și Daniel Schacter. 2001. ”Implicit Learning and Memory: Psychological and Neural Aspects.” International Encyclopedia of the Social & Behavioral Sciences 7237-7241. https://doi.org/10.1016/B0-08-043076-7/03513-0.
Da Silva, Sergio. 2023. ”System 1 vs. System 2 Thinking.” Psych 2023 5 (4): 1057-1076.https://doi.org/10.3390/psych5040071.
De Groot, Adrianus Dingeman. 1965. Thought and Choice in Chess (2nd ed.). The Hague:Mouton Publishers.
Evans, Jonathan. 2003. ”In two minds: dual-process accounts of reasoning.” Trends inCognitive Sciences 7 (10): 454–459. doi:10.1016/j.tics.2003.08.012.
Fogarty, William M. 1988. ”Formal Investigation into the Circumstances Surrounding the Downing of Iran Air Flight 655 on 3 July 1988.” U.S. Navy, unclassified letter. https://en.wikisource.org/wiki/Formal_Investigation_into_the_Circumstances_Surrounding_the_Downing_of_Iran_Air_Flight_655_on_3_July_1988/Internal_Report.
Friedman, Norman. 1989. ”The Vincennes Incident.” https://www.usni.org/magazines/proceedings/1989/may/vincennes-incident.
Garety, Philippa A., Paul Bebbington, David Fowler, Daniel Freeman și Elizabeth Kuipers. 2007. ”Implications for neurobiological research of cognitive models of psychosis: a theoretical paper.” Psychol Med 37 (10): 1377-1391. doi:10.1017/S003329170700013X.
Gigerenzer, Gerd și Daniel G. Goldstein. 1996. ”Reasoning the fast and frugal way: Models of bounded rationality.” Psychological Review 103 (4): 650–669. doi:10.1037/0033-295x.103.4.650.
Gigerenzer, Gerd și Peter Sedlmeier. 1997. ”Intuitions about sample size: The empirical law of large numbers.” Journal of Behavioral Decision Making 10 (1): 33–51.
Gobet, Fernand și Simon Herbert. 1996. ”Templates in Chess Memory: A Mechanism for Recalling Several Boards.” Cognitive Psychology 31 (1): 1-40. doi:10.1006/cogp.1996.0011.
Graham, Paul, Trina Evitts și Roanne Thomas-MacLean. 2008. ”Environmental Scans:How useful are they for primary care research?” Can Fam Physician 54 (7): 1022–1023. https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC2464800/.
Guo, P. 2013. ”Optimal video length for student engagement.” https://blog.edx.org/optimalvideo-length-student-engagement/.
Hamm, Robert. 1988. ”Clinical intuition and clinical analysis expertise and the cognitive continuum.” În Professional Judgement: A Reader in Clinical Decision Making, deDowie J. and A. Elstein eds, 78–109. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.
Hammond, Keneth. 1988. ”Judgement and decision making in dynamic tasks.” Information and Decision Technologies 14: 3–14.
Harteis, Christian și Stephen Billett. 2013. ”Intuitive expertise: Theories and empirical evidence.” Educational Research Review Vol. 9: pp. 145–157. doi:10.1016/j.edurev.2013.02.001.
Haselton, Martie G., Daniel Nettle și Damian R. Murray. 2016. ”The evolution of cognitive bias.” În The handbook of evolutionary psychology: Integrations (2nd ed.), editor D. M.Buss, 968–987. John Wiley & Sons, Inc.
Haselton, Martie G. și Daniel M. Buss. 2000. ”Error management theory: A new perspective on biases in cross-sex mind reading.” Journal of Personality and Social Psychology 78 (1): 81–91.
Hogarth, Robin M. 2001. Educating intuition. Chicago: University of Chicago Press.
Hume, David. 2000. (1739-1740) A Treatise of Human Nature. Editor D.F. Norton și M.J.Norton. Oxford: Oxford University Press.
Hutchins, Susan, și Lorraine Duffy. 1993. Decision-Making Evaluation Facility for Tactical Teams. https://apps.dtic.mil/sti/tr/pdf/ADA265058.pdf.
Janser, Michael. 2007. ”Cognitive Biases in Military Decision Making”. https://apps.dtic.mil/sti/tr/pdf/ADA493560.pdf.
Jing Kai, Chen. 2016. ”Cognitive Biases: The Root of Irrationality in Military Decision-Making.” Pointer, Journal of The Singapore Armed Forces Vol.42, No.2. https://www.mindef. gov.sg/oms/ safti/pointer /documents/ pdf/Vol42No2_6%20Cognitive%20Biases.pdf.
Kahneman, Daniel. 2011. Thinking, Fast and Slow. London: Macmillan.
Kahneman, Daniel, Barbara L. Fredrickson, Charles A. Schreiber și Donald A.Redelmeier. 1993. ”When more pain is preferred to less: Adding a better end.”Psychological Science 4 (6): 401-405.
Kahneman, Daniel și Amos Tversky. 1974. ”Judgment under Uncertainty: Heuristics and Biases.” Science 185 (4157): 1124–1131. doi:10.1126/science.185.4157.1124.
—. 1981. ”Variants of Uncertainty.” Cognition 11 (2): 143–157. https://doi.org/10.1016/0010-0277(82)90023-3.
Kahneman, Daniel și Gary Klein. 2009. ”Conditions for intuitive expertise: A failure to disagree.” American Psychologist 64 (6): 515–526. doi:10.1037/a0016755.
Klein, Gary. 1993. ”A recognition-primed decision (RPD) model of rapid decision making.” În Decision making in action: Models and methods, de G. A. Klein, J. Orasanu, R.Calderwood și C. E. Zsambok (Eds.), 138–147. Ablex Publishing.
—. 2004. The Power of Intuition: How to Use Your Gut Feelings to Make Better Decisions at Work. Crown Currency.
—. 2015. ”A naturalistic decision making perspective on studying intuitive decision making.” Journal of Applied Research in Memory and Cognition 4 (3): 164–168.doi:10.1016/j.jarmac.2015.07.001.
—. 2017. Source of Power.How People make Decision. The MIT Press.
—. 2021. ”The RPD Model: Criticisms and Confusions.” Psychology Today. https:/ /www.psychologytoday.com/intl/blog/seeing-what-others-dont/202102/the-rpd-modelcriticisms.
Klein, Gary, Roberta Calderwood și Anne Clinton-Cirocco. 1986. ”Rapid Decision Making on the Fire Ground.” Proceedings of the Human Factors Society Annual Meeting 30 (6): 576–580. doi:10.1177/154193128603000616.
__. 2010. ”Rapid Decision Making on the Fire Ground: The Original Study Plus a Postscript.” Journal of Cognitive Engineering and Decision Making 43 (3): 186–209.doi:10.1518/155534310x12844000801203.
Knighton, Wing R.J. 2004. ”The Psychology of Risk and its Role in Military Decision‐Making, Defence Studies.” 4 (3): 309-334. doi:10.1080/1470243042000344786.
Latham, Gary și Lise Saari. 1982. ”The importance of union acceptance for productivity improvement through goal setting.” Personnel Psychology 35 (4): 781–787. https:// doi.org/10.1111/j.1744-6570.1982.tb02221.x.
Lazarus, Richard. 1993. ”Coping theory and research: Past, present, and future.” Psychosomatic Medicine (No. 55): 234-247.
Lazarus, Richard și S. Folkman. 1984. Stress, appraisal and coping. New York: Springer.
Lipshitz, Raanan. 1993. ”Converging themes in the study of decision making in realistic settings.” În Decision making in action: Models and methods, de G. A. Klein, J. Orasanu, R. Calderwood și C. E. Zsambok (Eds.), 103-137. Ablex Publishing.
Lyneham, Joy, Camillus Parkinson și Carey Denholm. 2008. ”Explicating Benner’s concept of expert practice: intuition in emergency nursing.” Journal of Advanced Nursing 64 (4): 380–387. doi:10.1111/j.1365-2648.2008.04799.x.
Mantua, Janna, Alexxa F. Bessey, Carolyn A. Mickelson, Jake J. Choynowski și Jeremy J. Noble. 2021. ”Sleep and high-risk behavior in military service members: a megaanalysis of four diverse U.S. Army units.” Sleep 44 (4): zsaa221. doi:10.1093/sleep/ zsaa221.
Miller, George. 2003. ”The cognitive revolution: a historical perspective.” Trends in Cognitive Sciences 7 (3): 141-144. https://doi.org/10.1016/S1364-6613(03)00029-9.
Montgomery, Henry. 1983. ”Decision Rules and the Search for a Dominance Structure: Towards a Process Model of Decision Making.” Analysing and Aiding Decision Processes, 343–369. doi: 10.1016/s0166-4115(08)62243.
__. 2012. ”Decision Making and Action: The Search for a Dominance Structure.” The Construction of Preference, 342–355. Cambridge University Press.
Mustață, Marinel-Adi și Alina Ionașcu. 2018. ”The Story of Behavioral Economics. In a Nutshell.” Strategic Changes in Security and International Relationship. vol. 3. 204-213.
Mustață, Marinel-Adi și Cristina Bogzeanu. 2017. Programul euristicilor și biasurilor. Aplicații și implicații în domeniul militar. București: Editura Universității Naționale de Apărare Carol I.
Nalliah, Romesh. 2016. ”Clinical decision making – choosing between intuition, experience and scientific evidence.” British Dental Journal (221): 752–754. https://doi. org/10.1038/sj.bdj.2016.942.
NATO. 2017. The NATO Alternative Analysis Handbook. Second Edition. https://www.act. nato.int/wp-content/uploads/2023/05/alta-handbook.pdf.
Park, Whan și Lessig Parker. 1981. ”Familiarity and Its Impact on Consumer Decision Biases and Heuristics.” Journal of Consumer Research 8 (2): 223-230. doi:10.1086/208859.
Peters, Ellen, Daniel Västfjäll, Paul Slovic, C.K. Mertz, Ketti Mazzocco și Stephan Dickert. 2006. ”Numeracy and Decision Making.” Psychological Science 17 (5): 407-413. https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/10.1111/j.1467-9280.2006.01720.x.
Petrofsky, Lyddia A., Corinne M. Heffernan, Brian T. Gregg și Enrique V. Smith. 2021. ”Effects of Sleep Deprivation in Military Service Members on Cognitive Performance: A Systematic Review.” Military Behavioral Health 10 (3): 202-220. doi:10.1080/21635 781.2021.1982088.
Pokrant, Marvin. 1999. Desert Storm at Sea: What the Navy Really Did. London: Praeger.
Qu, Jue, Hao Guo, Wei Wang, Sina Dang și Haiping Liu. 2022. ”A Study on the Intuitive Design of Target Search Tasks under Time and Information Pressure.” Brain Sci 12 (11): 1464. https://doi.org/10.3390/brainsci12111464.
Radtke, Elise L., Rainer Düsing, Julius Kuhl, Mattie Tops și Markus Quirin. 2020. ”Personality, Stress, and Intuition: Emotion Regulation Abilities Moderate the Effect of Stress-Dependent Cortisol Increase on Coherence Judgments.” Front. Psychol. Vol. 11. https://doi.org/10.3389/fpsyg.2020.00339.
Riffenburgh, Robeert. 1991. ”Tactical Decision Making Under Stress (TADMUS) Program Study Initial Design.” https://apps.dtic.mil/sti/tr/pdf/ADA242766.pdf.
Seijts, Gerard, Gary P. Latham, Kevin Tasa și Brandon W. Latham. 2004. ”Goal Setting and Goal Orientation: An Integration of Two Different Yet Related Literatures.” Academy of Management Journal 47 (2): 227-239. doi:10.5465/20159574.
Selye, Hans. 1973. ”The Evolution of the Stress Concept.” American scientist 61 (6): 692-699.
Shanteau, James. 1992. ”Competence in experts: The role of task characteristics.” Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, Elsevier 53 (2): 252-266.
Sinclair, Marta, Neal M. Ashkanasy, Prithviraj Chattopadhyay și Maree V. Boyle. 2002. ”Determinants of Intuitive Decision Making in Management: The Moderating Role of Affect.” În Managing Emotions in the Workplace. New York: Routledge. https://www. researchgate.net/publication/45377370.
Spelke, Elizabeth. 1994. ”Initial knowledge: six suggestions.” Cognition 50 (1-3): 431–445. doi:10.1016/0010-0277(94)90039-6.
Sylvester, Benjamin, Damian O’Keefe, Steve Gooch și Eugenia Kalantzis. 2022. ”Behavioral Economics in Military Personnel Research and Policy.” În Handbook of Military Sciences, de A.M. Sookermany (eds). Springer, Cham. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3030-02866-4_83-1.
Thaler, Richard H. și Cass R. Sustein. 2008. Nudge: Improving Decisions about Health, Wealth, and Happiness. London: Yale University Press.
US Marines Corps. 2010. ”Combat and operational stress control.” MCTP 3-30E (Formerly MCRP 6-11C), p. 1-3. https://www.marines.mil/portals/1/Publications/MCTP%20 3-30E%20Formerly%20MCRP%206-11C.pdf.
Van den Berge, Carlo, Amy B. Adler, Roos Delahaij, Suzanne M. Bailey, Merle Parmak, Barend van Tussenbroek, José M. Puente și alții. 2013. ”NATO Survey of Mental Health Training in Army Recruits.” Military Medicine 178 (7): 760–766. https://doi. org/10.7205/MILMED-D-12-00549.
Waxman, Robert. 2019. ”Five Philosophers on Free Will: Plato, Hobbes, Hume, Leibniz, and Hegel.” https://philarchive.org/rec/PHDFPO.
Yu, Rongjun. 2016. ”Stress potentiates decision biases: A stress induced deliberationto-intuition (SIDI) model.” Neurobiology of Stress Vol. 3: 83-95. doi:10.1016/j. ynstr.2015.12.006.
