THE VOLATILE SECURITY ENVIRONMENT AFTER THE WAR IN UKRAINE: ʻLESSONS LEARNEDʼ FROM HISTORY AND HOW WE PREPARE

Abstract

One of the fundamental reasons why history is so important is that it essentially provides access to a vast collection of “lessons learned” accessible to those willing to study and understand them. In the realm of international relations, national defense, homeland security, regional geopolitics, strategic foresight, and societal resilience, history becomes essential. This article undertakes a brief literature review in order to understand whether professionals continue to regard “lessons learned” as a valuable tool. Furthermore, it includes a comparative analysis of recent wars and their aftermath, in order to address a central question – which are the challenges we can expect to face and how will the world look like once the war in Ukraine reaches its conclusion? Historical evidence suggests that, regardless of the outcome of the war in Ukraine, we will be looking at a much more volatile security environment throughout the world. This will be due, especially, to the proliferation of emerging technologies, new military equipment and the new expertise developed in the war in Ukraine, which will be exported worldwide.