Strategic Impact

EDITOR’S NOTE

2026-06-17T12:48:11+03:00

The third issue of Strategic Impact journal, no. 96/2025, is dedicated to contemporary challenges and developments in the field of security and strategic studies. This edition brings together contributions addressing subjects of major relevance for the current international security environment, including regional security communities and NATO eastern flank dynamics, the role of civilian infrastructure and engineering governance in NATO military mobility and collective defence preparedness.
In addition, under the rubric Strategic Dialogue, we have the honour to publish an interview with Major-General Constantin Nicolaescu, the Chief of Staff of HQ Multinational Corps South-East, on leadership and resilience on NATO’s Eastern Flank. This issue also introduces a new rubric, Research Outputs, presenting a summary of the Strategic Evaluation 2024, authored by cdsss team of researches.

FINANCING AS ORGANISATIONAL CONSTRAINT: A COMPARATIVE ANALYSIS OF REVENUE ARCHITECTURE ACROSS RAPOPORT’S FOUR WAVES OF TERRORISM

2026-06-17T13:21:04+03:00

This article analyses the evolution of terrorist financing across the four waves of modern terrorism identified by David C. Rapoport, arguing that financial architecture operates as a structural constraint shaping organisational form and strategic capacity of terrorist groups. By comparatively examining revenue sources, transfer mechanisms, and expenditure profiles, the study demonstrates how variations in funding stability and scale have influenced patterns of centralisation, bureaucratisation, and operational reach.
The anarchist wave was characterised by limited and irregular resources, encouraging decentralised structures and low-cost, symbolically disproportionate violence. Anticolonial movements expanded their financial bases through diaspora mobilisation and external facilitation networks, enabling sustained campaigns. The New Left wave increasingly relied on criminal revenues to support logistics-intensive underground infrastructures. In the religious wave, transnational donation systems and territorially anchored taxation models facilitated more institutionalised and, in some cases, proto-state forms of governance.
The findings suggest that the historical transformation of terrorist financing reflects a shift from episodic political violence toward structurally sustained organisational models.

STRATEGIC EVALUATION 2024 DECLINE AND VIOLENCE IN THE INTERNATIONAL SECURITY ENVIRONMENT

2026-06-17T13:44:53+03:00

As a result of scientific research conducted by our researcher collective, the monograph `STRATEGIC EVALUATION 2024. Decline and Violence in the International Security Environment` was published under the auspices of the Centre for Defence and Security Strategic Studies (CDSSS), by the the ʻCarol Iʼ National Defence University Publishing House.
The monograph provides a comprehensive analysis of the key strategic dynamics shaping the international system in a period characterised by overlapping crises, increasing instability, and profound systemic transformation.

The study is accessible (in Romanian) at the following link:
https://revista.unap.ro/index.php/Evaluare_strategica/issue/view/176/30

UNITED IN THE NORTH, DIVIDED IN THE SOUTH: EXPLAINING SECURITY COMMUNITY FORMATION ON NATO’S EASTERN FLANK

2026-06-17T12:52:19+03:00

Regional security community formation succeeded in the Baltic Sea region but not in the Black Sea region of NATO’s eastern flank. Using Karl Deutsch’s framework, the article comparatively analyses two indicators-common identity reflected in threat perceptions towards Russia, and networks of institutional cooperation. The Baltic case study encompasses Poland and the Baltic states, while the Black Sea analysis focuses on Bulgaria, Romania, and Türkiye since Russia’s annexation of Crimea in 2014, which is considered a juncture point in the region’s security landscape. Baltic NATO allies share a unified strategic identity rooted in historical Soviet occupation and perceive Russia as an existential threat, enabling robust institutional cooperation through formats such as joint military initiatives and coordinated defence postures. In contrast, Black Sea cooperation is hampered by divergent strategic identities and asymmetric threat perceptions. While Bulgaria and Romania view Russia as the primary threat to the region and advocate for enhanced NATO presence, Türkiye pursues strategic autonomy, positioning itself as a regional mediator rather than aligning with NATO against Moscow. The article concludes that security communities emerge when members share existential threat perceptions and common identities. For the Black Sea region, the study recommends inviting Türkiye to participate in the emerging EU Black Sea Maritime Security Hub and developing the Three Seas Initiative as an alternative cooperation framework.

DETERRENCE STRATEGIES FOR SMALL AND MEDIUM-SIZED STATES ON NATO’S EASTERN FLANK: THE CASE OF ROMANIA IN THE NEW SECURITY CONTEXT

2026-06-17T12:58:53+03:00

The war in Ukraine has rewritten the parameters of international security and put military deterrence back at the heart of the European security architecture. Donald Trump’s recent statements reflect an ambivalent approach to deterrence, combining pressure for increased defence spending by NATO allies and linking US political commitment to the Alliance’s fundamental principles. All of this may increase the risk of misperceptions and strategic exploitation of internal fractures by a potential adversary.
This paper analyses the mechanisms by which a state in the proximity of the conflict – the case of Romania, can build a credible strategic deterrence posture in an environment marked by uncertainties regarding the cohesion of alliances and power asymmetries. Using a comparative methodology (MSSD) and the TOWS matrix, the study proposes the transition from norm-based deterrence to deterrence through denial, supported by societal resilience and advanced technological capabilities.
The conclusions of the paper argue the reality that Romania cannot compete symmetrically with a nuclear and cyber power (e.g. Russia). Nevertheless, Romania can attain a level of effective deterrence by combining internal defence development measures and the consolidation of political-military alliances (NATO, EU). These findings may represent relevant operational recommendations for the formulation of European security policy.

HOST NATION SUPPORT AND CIVIL - MILITARY INFRASTRUCTURE COOPERATION IN NATO OPERATIONS

2026-06-17T13:04:05+03:00

The evolving security landscape in Europe, characterised by renewed conventional military threats along NATO’s Eastern Flank, has placed unprecedented demands on Host Nation Support (HNS) frameworks and the infrastructure systems that underpin them. This paper examines the intersection of civil engineering capabilities and military operational requirements within the context of NATO collective defence, arguing that effective HNS depends not merely on legal and political agreements between Allied nations, but critically on the physical capacity and technical readiness of civilian infrastructure to support large-scale force projection and sustainment. The paper further explores best practices in civil-military engineering cooperation drawn from Poland, Romania, and the Baltic states, identifying governance models and institutional mechanisms through which defence engineering requirements can be systematically embedded into national infrastructure planning cycles. The findings suggest that bridging the gap between civilian engineering standards and NATO operational thresholds necessitates a formalised, multi-stakeholder framework integrating military engineers, national infrastructure agencies, and Allied planners at both the strategic and technical levels.

THE IMPACT OF EMERGING TECHNOLOGIES ON INTELLIGENCE ANALYSIS

2026-06-17T13:26:41+03:00

Intelligence agencies have aligned with armed forces through the adoption of emerging technologies in their current operations. However, there is limited understanding of how artificial intelligence (AI) and Big Data modify the intelligence cycle and analytical process, particularly the redefinition of the human analyst’s role in the context of technology integration. This article adopts a socio-technical perspective to examine the interaction between emerging technologies and intelligence analysis, by addressing how technology use reconfigures the human analyst’s role through their repositioning within hybrid human-machine teams as the dominant working model.
Through the use of bibliometric analysis and systematic literature review, research trends were examined and findings regarding the technological impact on the analytical process and the interaction between technology and human operators within it were synthesised. The research results show that emerging technologies are leading to complex, comprehensive data automation and patter detection, but human judgment remains essential in the decision-making process.
The future of the intelligence analysis depends on the partnership between humans and machines, and achieving this will reconfigure analytical workflows, update doctrinal frameworks and operating procedures, and develop new skills to facilitate the effective integration of technical capabilities with human expertise.

FOREIGN POLICY AND THE INSTITUTIONAL EVOLUTION OF ROJAVAYÊ KURDISTAN (2011 – Present)

2026-06-17T13:09:42+03:00

This policy paper examines the evolution of Rojavayê Kurdistan [Western Kurdistan – commonly referred to as (Democratic Self-Governance of) Rojava] from 2011 to the present, analysing how successive phases of the Syrian conflict shaped its institutional development. It argues that Rojava’s survival and consolidation have been driven primarily by external engagement, rather than by religion or ideological doctrine. Drawing on primary sources, including interviews with central figures and significant contributors, such as Mazloum Abdi, Kino Gabriel, and Alan Semo, the paper demonstrates how Rojava’s military, political, and administrative institutions emerged in response to regional and international pressures.
Unlike the interim administration, where religion serves as a central source of political legitimacy and external alignment, Rojava’s governance model institutionalises a clear separation between religion and politics while employing religion as a unifying social and communal force. The analysis situates Rojava within a broader typology of states-to-be, illustrating how non-state actors can and do exercise foreign policy agency to secure survival, consolidate autonomy, and shape regional dynamics under conditions of conflict and contested sovereignty.
This study advances the literature by highlighting the greater significance of foreign policy in the institutionalisation of Rojava’s established administration. By tracing the interaction between foreign policy engagement and institutional evolution, the paper highlights the distinctiveness of Rojava’s model and contrasts it with competing governance structures in Syria. It argues for the greater significance of foreign policy in institutional consolidation, advancing an interpretation that departs from the dominant literature on non-state governance.
Building on this analysis, the paper offers policy recommendations grounded in the prerequisite of political agreement among Syria’s main political components. It concludes by outlining implications for Syria’s future political order, emphasising inclusive governance, the formation of political parties, free and transparent elections, decentralised yet unified state structures, and the reduction of foreign intervention as necessary conditions for a sustainable and stable political transition toward a post-conflict political order in Syria.

GUIDE FOR AUTHORS

2026-06-17T13:53:47+03:00

We welcome those interested in publishing articles in the academic journal Strategic Impact, while subjecting their attention towards aspects to consider upon drafting their articles.
Starting with issue no. 1/2023, the journal shall be published in the English language only!

We welcome articles all year round.

LEADERSHIP AND RESILIENCE ON NATO’S EASTERN FLANK: INSIGHTS FROM MAJOR-GENERAL CONSTANTIN NICOLAESCU

2026-06-17T13:36:17+03:00

Major-General Constantin Nicolaescu (b. 1973, Craiova) is a Romanian Army officer serving as Chief of Staff of HQ Multinational Corps South-East since September 2024. With a background in infantry and Special Operations Forces, he has held key command and staff roles, including brigade commander and SOF battalion commander, and served in missions in Afghanistan and Iraq. Promoted to Major-General in 2025, he holds a PhD in Military Sciences and has received multiple national and international military awards.