ENTERING THE THIRD YEAR OF THE RUSSIA – UKRAINE WAR: WHAT MIGHT HAPPEN IN THE NEAR FUTURE

Abstract

The war in Ukraine has entered its third year and no one can predict what may happen in 2024 and the years to come. Many military leaders consider that it is very difficult to predict the conduct of the Russia – Ukraine War in the next six months and beyond. Even so, Russia’s recent momentum, together with the upcoming Ukraine’s weaponry and ammunition shortage, as well as the delayed US military aid, should raise serious red flags to political and military analysts regarding some concerns and worries on the current situation in Ukraine and the possible scenarios for the end of 2024 and beyond. Moreover, the war in Ukraine should be analysed in an international context, taking into consideration the evolution of the situation in the Middle East and Africa, as well as the fierce Sino – American confrontation for the World dominance. Therefore, this paper will focus on the main characteristics of the War in Ukraine at the beginning of 2024, in order to design several scenarios concerning what might happen in the near future. The research method is based on facts analysis and comparison with the last two years of war. The article has some limitations because the international support’s effects on the battlefield are still unclear and the uncertainty regarding the results of the US future Presidential elections. But, even so, it could be used to design Eastern European countries’ strategies for the evolving situation, including Romania.