Strategic Autonomy without Alliances: Indonesia’s Defence Dilemma

Abstract

This article examines how intensifying alliance policies in the Indo-Pacific is reshaping the strategic choices of non-allied middle powers. As rivalry among major powers deepens and new security alignments expand, states face increasing pressure to strengthen deterrence, secure technology access, and clarify strategic positions. Indonesia presents a distinctive case because it has historically avoided formal alliances and continues to favour strategic autonomy grounded in sovereign decision-making, diplomatic flexibility, and regional multilateralism. The study asks whether strategic autonomy can remain viable without alliances amid growing regional competition. Drawing on qualitative analysis of secondary data, including policy documents, strategic reports, defence assessments, and scholarly sources, the article evaluates Indonesia’s current posture and its emerging constraints. The findings indicate that strategic autonomy remains possible but is becoming more demanding. Capability gaps, fragmented procurement, maritime pressure in surrounding waters, grey-zone competition, and rising deterrence requirements all increase the costs of maintaining independence without external guarantees. Indonesia has responded through hedging, selective defence partnerships, and gradual modernisation rather than formal alignment. The article contributes by introducing the concept of a middle-power non-aligned defence dilemma, in which sovereignty and policy discretion are preserved, but strategic burdens rise as competition intensifies. The Indonesian case suggests that future autonomy will depend less on distance from partnerships than on the capacity to combine independence with credible capability and adaptive cooperation.