From Secret Diplomacy to Institutional Interaction: Intelligence Services and Intelligence Diplomacy in Conflict Resolution

Abstract

Increasing expectations of transparency in formal diplomacy often limit the effectiveness of official channels, particularly in sensitive strategic matters, leading states to rely on the less visible, yet highly flexible, mechanism of intelligence diplomacy. Moreover, traditional diplomatic tools have struggled to resolve post-9/11 conflicts, which are characterized by hybrid warfare, gray zones, and the prominence of non-state actors. To address these challenges, governments increasingly utilize intelligence services not merely for information gathering but as primary actors in conflict resolution. This study investigates the effectiveness of intelligence diplomacy in conflict resolution processes by employing a qualitative multiple case study design based on open sources. The cases were selected to determine whether the outcomes of such initiatives are driven by idiosyncratic conditions or systematic structural factors. The analysis focuses on three core activities: covert negotiations, mediation, and information sharing. The findings suggest that intelligence diplomacy has evolved from a supportive auxiliary function into a structural necessity, providing a critical alternative where formal diplomacy fails. The study concludes that intelligence services effectively
navigate the complexities of modern conflicts by establishing initial contact and sustaining dialogue in environments where official diplomatic presence is limited or impossible.