A Narrative Intelligence Approach to European Climate Change and Migration Policy: a Case Study of the Sahel

Authors

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.53477/2284-9378-26-01

Keywords:

Climate Change;, Sahel, Migration;, Terrorism, Europe;, Narrative Intelligence

Abstract

The application of narrative intelligence to the climate, migration, and terrorism nexus in the Sahel reveals critical insights that are often obscured by traditional analytical approaches. Narrative intelligence, understood as the systematic analysis of stories, symbols, and meaning-making processes, exposes the emotional and cognitive dimensions that underpin climate-related instability in this fragile region. This study demonstrates that extremist organizations across the Sahel strategically exploit narratives of environmental injustice, displacement, and marginalization to recruit members and legitimize violence. It also shows that competing portrayals of climate migrants, whether as vulnerable populations deserving protection or as potential security threats requiring containment, shape national and regional policy responses that can either mitigate or intensify existing tensions. Moreover, the absence of coherent and empowering narratives surrounding climate adaptation and livelihood resilience creates ideological vacuums that violent extremist
movements are quick to fill. By integrating narrative intelligence into security and policy assessments, this study argues that reframing climate migration through inclusive and resilience-oriented narratives offers a powerful form of strategic communication. Such an approach can reduce recruitment potential, promote more coherent governance strategies, and strengthen societal resilience across the Sahel in the face of accelerating climate and security challenges. Using Open Source Intelligence (OSINT) tools, this article pursues three interrelated objectives: to identify the dominant narrative frameworks shaping policy and public discourse on the climate–migration–terrorism nexus as it pertains to the Sahel and Europe; examine how those narratives structure particular policy responses; and assess the implications of competing and convergent narratives for counterterrorism and climate adaptation strategy.

Author Biographies

William F. LYONS Jr., JD, Vice President for Distance Education, Norwich University, Northfield, Vermont

William F. (Bill) Lyons Jr. was appointed the Vice President for Distance Education at Norwich University in 2025. In this role, he oversees the College of Graduate & Continuing Studies, which confers undergraduate and graduate degrees in a wide range of degree programs and specialties. Prior to his appointment as Vice President, he served as the Associate Dean for Security, Diplomacy, and Defense Programs in the College of Graduate & Continuing Studies. Bill is a Professor of Practice in Strategic Studies and Engineering. At Norwich, he teaches courses at the graduate level on National Security Strategy - Theory and Frameworks, The Military and the Use of Force, National Security, Cyber Law, and Intelligence and National Security Policy. He also teaches undergraduate civil engineering courses.
A 1990 graduate of Norwich University, Bill earned a Bachelor of Science in Electrical Engineering. Within Norwich, Bill has been a Director and Senior Fellow in the Center for Global Resilience & Security, an adjunct faculty member in the David Crawford School of Engineering, and a consultant to the Norwich University Applied Research Institutes (NUARI). His previous academic appointments include adjunct faculty positions at Unity Environmental University, Wentworth Institute of Technology, Southern New Hampshire University, and the U.S. Army Command & General Staff College. Bill has more than thirty years of experience in academia, consulting, law, government, and technology. He founded a consultancy in 2004, which provided services in law, engineering, and planning. Over the course of more than 20 years, Bill provided services to a wide range of public and private clients, including the U.S. Department of Defense, U.S.

Department of State, and U.S. Agency for International Development. He has executed projects in twenty countries around the world, including projects in remote and austere environments for special operations forces. He recently resided in Juba, South Sudan for 14 months, where he was the Director of Design & Construction for the U.S. Embassy.
Bill is currently a candidate for a Ph.D. in Civil and Environmental Engineering from the University of Massachusetts Amherst. He holds a Juris Doctor from Suffolk University Law School (with honors in environmental law), a Master of Strategic Studies from the US Army War College, a Master of Transportation and Urban Systems from North Dakota State University, and a Master of Studies in Sustainability Leadership from the University Cambridge (UK).
In his military career, Bill recently retired in the rank of Colonel in the Army Reserves, having served most of his career in human intelligence and strategic military intelligence. He served in command at all levels from detachment through brigade. He is a combat veteran of Operation Iraqi Freedom.
Bill’s research interests include environmental security, sustainable urban design, infrastructure and environment in developing countries, and new urban mobility. He is widely published in academic journals, trade journals, and periodicals.

Diane M. ZORRI, Academic Director, Department of Strategic Studies, College of Graduate and Continuing Studies, Norwich University, Northfield, Vermont

Diane Zorri is the Academic Director of the Strategic Studies Department at Norwich University. She brings a unique blend of military service, academic scholarship, and defense industry experience to her work, reflecting a career dedicated to advancing global security, strategic thinking, and professional military education. Her interdisciplinary background allows her to bridge theory and practice, preparing students to navigate complex security environments shaped by geopolitical competition, emerging technologies, and evolving threats.

Dr. Zorri has held academic appointments at the National Defense College of the United Arab Emirates, Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University in Daytona Beach, Florida, and John Cabot University in Rome, Italy. Before transitioning to academia, she served as an officer in the United States Air Force.

Following her military service, Dr. Zorri worked for an Italian–U.S. defense conglomerate, managing projects related to foreign military sales, integrated communications, and physical security. She also spent two years in Baghdad, Iraq, overseeing a program of bilingual-bicultural advisors supporting the U.S. military and the U.S. Department of State. Her professional experience spans military operations, defense industry engagement, and international capacity-building efforts.

Dr. Zorri’s educational background includes an undergraduate degree from the United States Air Force Academy, a graduate degree from the Naval Postgraduate School in Monterey, California, and a Ph.D. in Political Science from the Schar School of Policy and Government at George Mason University. Her research and teaching focus on national security, strategy, emerging technology, civil–military relations, and the evolving character of conflict.

For a complete list of publications, see: https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=ZiMzK1AAAAAJ&hl=en

 

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Published

2026-04-09

How to Cite

F. LYONS Jr., JD, W., & M. ZORRI, D. . (2026). A Narrative Intelligence Approach to European Climate Change and Migration Policy: a Case Study of the Sahel. BULLETIN OF "CAROL I" NATIONAL DEFENCE UNIVERSITY, 15(1), 7–28. https://doi.org/10.53477/2284-9378-26-01

Issue

Vol. 15 No. 1 (2026)

Section

Articles

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The published articles are subject to copyright law. All rights are reserved to the “Carol I” National Defense University, regardless of whether all or part of the material are considered, especially the rights to translation, reprinting, re-use of illustrations, quotations, broadcasting through the media, reproduction on microfilms or any other way and storage in data banks. Any replicas without the associated fees are authorized provided the source is acknowledged.