Beijing’s Shadow Force: China’s Wagner-like Private Security Company in Myanmar’s Civil War

Abstract

This study examines China’s establishment of a joint private security company with Myanmar’s military junta as an evolution in Beijing’s power projection capabilities. It analyzes how China balances protecting strategic Belt and Road investments while maintaining its non-interventionist diplomatic posture through innovative hybrid security arrangements in conflict zones.

Study design/methodology/approach: The research employs multiple theoretical frameworks to analyze this emerging security paradigm, including securitization theory, graduated sovereignty, and strategic hedging. It synthesizes reports from Myanmar’s military-controlled media with comparative analyses of private security companies across different geopolitical contexts, particularly focusing on October 2022-2024 developments in the China-Myanmar Economic Corridor.

Findings: The study reveals China’s development of a sophisticated “Wagner with Chinese characteristics” model that
differs significantly from Russia’s approach to private military contracting. Unlike the Wagner Group’s overt combat orientation, China’s model emphasizes calibrated influence through corporate structures that provide legal distance while preserving operational control. This arrangement allows Beijing to deploy security elements in sovereign conflict zones without formal military commitment, strategically protecting the China-Myanmar Economic Corridor as an alternative to the vulnerable Malacca Strait.

Originality/value: This research identifies an emerging Chinese doctrine for protecting overseas interests that transcends traditional distinctions between private and state security actors. It demonstrates how China is recalibrating its foreign policy toolkit to include “informal forward deployment” capabilities that operate below the threshold of conventional military intervention. The findings provide a framework for understanding similar hybrid security arrangements that may emerge across Belt and Road territories facing persistent instability.