Conventional Arms Control in the Baltic Sea: A Montreux for the North
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.53477/2284-9378-25-04Keywords:
Conventional arms control, Baltic Sea, Montreux Convention, Danish Straits.Abstract
A conventional arms control (CAC) agreement for the Baltic Sea could help stabilize the security relationship, reduce arms racing, and improve diplomatic relations between Russia and the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO). Similar to the Montreux Convention, which governs the passage of naval forces through the Turkish Straits, a CAC agreement focused on the Danish Straits could set limits on the size, type, number, and total tonnage of naval ships that pass through the straits. Additionally, or alternatively, an agreement could set limits on naval vessels based in the Baltic Sea, based on a combination of ratios, ship types, and capabilities. Any agreement could be implemented and managed by the state parties themselves or delegated to an agreement executor, such as an international organization.
References
Alberque, William. 2023. “NATO Allies Fully Suspend Implementation of the CFE Treaty.” IISS. https://www.iiss.org/online-analysis/online-analysis/2023/10/nato-allies-fullysuspend-implementation-of-the-cfe-treaty/#.
AP News. 2024. “Baltic Sea Nations React Warily to a Reported Russian Proposal to Revise Its Maritime Border.” https://apnews.com/article/baltic-sea-russia-security-borderfb9849dd556fa166f1135172c6935c9d.
Axe, David. 2023. “Ukrainian Bombers Just Blew Up Another Russian Warship. ‘Russia’s Fleet Is Getting Smaller And Smaller!’” Forbes. https://www.forbes.com/sites/davidaxe/2023/12/26/ukrainian-bombers-just-blew-up-another-russian-warshiprussias-fleet-is-getting-smaller-and-smaller/.
Baev, Pavel. 2023. “Russia’s New Challenges in the Baltic/Northern European Theater.” Notes de L’Ifri 130. Russie.Eurasie.Visions. Paris: French Institute of International Relations (Ifri).
Bagot, Charles, and Richard Rush. 1817. “British-American Diplomacy: Exchange of Notes Relative to Naval Forces on the American Lakes.” The Avalon Project. https://avalon.law.yale.edu/19th_century/conv1817.asp.
Baliga, Sandeep, and Tomas Sjöström. 2004. “Arms Races and Negotiations.” Review of Economic Studies 71:351–69.
Brooks, James. 2022. “Swedish, US Troops Drill on Remilitarized Baltic Sea Island.” Military Times. https://www.militarytimes.com/news/your-military/2022/06/12/swedish-ustroops-drill-on-remilitarized-baltic-sea-island/.
Burns, Richard Dean, and Donald Urquidi. 1968. Disarmament in Perspective: Volume 4: Conclusions. Vol. 4. Los Angeles: California State College at Los Angeles Foundation.
Buzhinskiy, Evgeny, and Oleg Shakirov. 2019. Outlines for Future Conventional Arms Control in Europe: A Sub-Regional Regime in the Baltics. London, UK: European Leadership Network (ELN).
“Chapter Five: Russia and Eurasia.” 2022. The Military Balance 122 (1): 164–217. https://doi.org/10.1080/04597222.2022.2022930.
“Chapter Four: Russia and Eurasia.” 2025. The Military Balance 125 (1): 152–205. https://doi.org/10.1080/04597222.2025.2445476.
“Chapter Three: Europe.” 2025. The Military Balance 125 (1): 52–151. https://doi.org/10.1080/04597222.2025.2445475.
Charap, Samuel, Alice Lynch, John Drennan, Dara Massicot, and Giacomo Persi Paoli. 2020. A New Approach to Conventional Arms Control in Europe: Addressing the Security Challenges of the 21st Century. RAND Corporation. https://doi.org/10.7249/RR4346.
Claeys, Suzanne, and Heather W. Williams. 2022. “War and Arms Control: When to Pursue Cooperation.” Survival 64 (6): 137–52. https://doi.org/10.1080/00396338.2022.2150432.
Dahlstrand, Katherine E. 2024. “Achieving the Promise of NATO’s New Northeast Quadrant.” Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. https://carnegieendowment.org/research/2024/12/achieving-the-promise-of-natos-new-northeast-quadrant?lang=en.
Deaton, James Paul. 1975. The Significance of International Straits to Soviet Naval Operations. Monterey: Naval Postgraduate School.
Debre, Maria Josepha, and Hylke Dijkstra. 2021. “Institutional Design for a Post-Liberal Order: Why Some International Organizations Live Longer thanOthers.” European Journal of International Relations 27 (1): 311–39. https://doi.org/10.1177/1354066120962183.
Denmark. 1999. “Ordinance Governing the Admission of Foreign Warships and Military Aircraft to Danish Territory in Time of Peace.”
Downs, George W, David M Rocke, and Randolph M. Siverson. 1985. “Arms Races and Cooperation.” World Politics 38 (1): 118–46.
Dyer, Evan. 2023. “NATO’s Latest Moves Could Bottle up Much of Russia’s Naval Power.” CBC. July 20, 2023. https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/russia-ukraine-black-seabaltic-naval-1.6911530.
Engvall, Johan, Gudrun Persson, Robert Dalsjö, Mike Winnerstig, and Carolina Vendil Pallin. 2018. Conventional Arms Control - A Way Forward or Wishful Thinking? FOI.
Finnemore, Martha. 1993. “International Organizations as Teachers of Norms: The United Nations Educational, Scientific, and Cultural Organization and Science Policy.” International Organization 47 (4): 565–97. https://doi.org/10.1017/S0020818300028101.
Gapiński, Miłosz, Ireneusz Kulesza, and Konrad Muzyka. 2023. “Ocean Shield 2023: The Baltic Fleet’s Perspective.” Rochan Consulting.
Gray, Colin S. 1971. “The Arms Race Phenomenon.” World Politics 24 (1): 39–79. https://doi. org/10.2307/2009706.
Hausken, Kjell. 2016. “Cost Benefit Analysis of War.” International Journal of Conflict Management 27 (4): 454–69. https://doi.org/10.1108/IJCMA-04-2015-0023.
Helsinki Commission. n.d. Report on Shipping Accidents in the Baltic Sea Area for the Year 2008.
Hill, William H. 2023. “The OSCE Approaching Fifty: Does the Organization Have a Future?” In OSCE Insights 2022, edited by Institute for Peace Research and Security Policy at the University of Hamburg, 1–10. Baden-Baden: Nomos Verlagsgesellschaft mbH & Co. KG. https://doi.org/10.5771/9783748933625-01.
“Implementation of the Montreux Convention.” n.d. Republic of Türkiye Ministry of Foreign Affairs. Accessed July 24, 2023. https://www.mfa.gov.tr/implementation-ofthe- montreux-convention.en.mfa.
Isachenko, Daria. 2023. Turkey in the Black Sea Region: Ankara’s Reactions to the War in Ukraine against the Background of Regional Dynamics and Global Confrontation. Vol.SWP Research Paper 12. Berlin: Stiftung Wissenschaft und Politik: German Institute for International and Security Affairs. https://www.swp-berlin.org/10.18449/2023RP12/.
Kacprzyk, Artur, and Łukasz Kulesa. 2020. Dilemmas of Arms Control: Meeting the Interests of NATO’s North-Eastern Flank. Tallinn, Estonia: International Centre for Defence and Security.
Kayali, Laura. 2023. “Sorry Russia, the Baltic Sea Is NATO’s Lake Now.” POLITICO (blog).
Kucukgocmen, Ali, and Huseyin Hayatsever. 2024. “Turkey, Romania, Bulgaria Sign Deal to Clear Floating Black Sea Mines | Reuters.” Reuters. https://www.reuters.com/world/turkey-romania-bulgaria-ink-deal-clear-floating-black-sea-mines-2024-01-11/.
Kühn, Ulrich. 2015. “Institutional Resilience, Deterrence and the Transition to Zero Nuclear Weapons.” Security and Human Rights 26 (2–4): 262–80. https://doi.org/10.1163/18750230-02602002.
———. 2020. The Rise and Fall of Cooperative Arms Control in Europe. 1st ed. Demokratie, Sicherheit, Frieden. Baden-Baden: Nomos Verlagsgesellschaft mbH & Co. KG. https://doi.org/10.5771/9783748903239.
Kühn, Ulrich, and Anna Péczeli. 2017. “Russia, NATO and the INF Treaty.” Strategic Studies Quarterly 11 (1): 66–99.
Kvartalnov, Artem. 2021. “Indivisible Security and Collective Security Concepts: Implications for Russia’s Relations with the West.” Central European Journal of International and Security Studies 15 (3): 4–29. https://doi.org/10.51870/CEJISS.A150301.
Labrenz, Robert. 2023. “Drill Emission Control as a Main Battery.” U.S. Naval Institute 149 (6). https://www.usni.org/magazines/proceedings/2023/june/drill-emissioncontrol-main-battery.
Lippert, William. 2023a. “A European Military Balance Organization and Dynamic Conventional Arms Control.” Bulletin of “Carol I” National Defense University 12 (3):41–59. https://doi.org/10.53477/2284-9378-23-31.
———. 2023b. “The Role Of The European Union In Future Conventional Arms Control In Europe.” Presented at the EUACADEMY Conference “European Security: Challenges And Policies,” Dublin, Ireland, December 15.
———. 2024a. “Conventional Arms Control and Ending the Russo-Ukrainian War.” War on the Rocks. https://warontherocks.com/2024/10/conventional-arms-control-andending-the-russo-ukrainian-war/.
———. 2024b. “How Conventional Arms Control Failures Caused the Russo-Ukraine War.” Defense & Security Analysis, January, 1–23. https://doi.org/10.1080/14751798.2024.2300889.
Livermore, Doug. 2024. “NATO’s Baltic Build-Up.” CEPA. https://cepa.org/article/natosbaltic-build-up/.
Mazarr, Michael J., Samuel Charap, Abigail Casey, Irina A. Chindea, Christian Curriden, Alyssa Demus, Bryan Frederick, et al. 2021. Stabilizing Great-Power Rivalries. Santa Monica, CA: RAND Corporation. https://doi.org/10.7249/RR-A456-1.
NATO. 2021. “Statement by the North Atlantic Council on the Treaty on Open Skies.” NATO.June 18, 2021. http://www.nato.int/cps/en/natohq/news_184840.htm.
Nelson, Amy J., and Adam Twardowski. 2022. “How the Demise of an Arms Control Treaty Foreshadowed Russia’s Aggression against Ukraine.” Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists (blog). https://thebulletin.org/2022/02/how-the-demise-of-an-arms-control-treatyforeshadowed-russias-aggression-against-ukraine/.
Newsweek. 2023. “Sweden Joining NATO Is a Nightmare for Russia’s Baltic Sea Fleet.” https://www.newsweek.com/russia-nato-sweden-baltic-sea-finland-1812526.
“Note on the Turkish Straits.” n.d. Republic of Türkiye Ministry of Foreign Affairs. Accessed January 22, 2024. https://www.mfa.gov.tr/the-turkish-straits.en.mfa#.
“Notification Requirements.” n.d. Deutsche Flagge. Accessed January 21, 2024. https://www.deutsche-flagge.de/en/pscen/notification.
Office of Naval Intelligence. 2015. The Russian Navy: A Historic Transition. Suitland, MD:US Navy.
Ogura, Junko. 2021. “Japanese Submarine Collides with Commercial Ship While Surfacing in Pacific.” CNN. https://ww.cnn.com/2021/02/08/asia/japan-submarine-collisionintl-hnk-scli/index.html.
O’Neill, Barry. 1991. “Rush-Bagot and the Upkeep of Arms Treaties.” Arms Control Today 21(7): 20–23. http://www.jstor.org/stable/23624556.
OSCE. 2021. A Peaceful Presence - The First Five Years of the OSCE Special Monitoring Mission to Ukraine. Vienna: OSCE Conflict Prevention Centre. https://www.osce.org/secretariat/491220.
Overfield, Cornell. 2022. “Turkey Must Close the Turkish Straits Only to Russian and Ukrainian Warships.” Lawfare. https://www.lawfaremedia.org/article/turkey-mustclose- turkish-straits-only-russian-and-ukrainian-warships.
Peck, Michael. 2019. “Why a Battlecruiser Is No Battleship: High Speed and Firepower, but No Armor.” Text. The National Interest. The Center for the National Interest. https://nationalinterest.org/blog/buzz/why-battlecruiser-no-battleship-high-speed-andfirepower-no-armor-82871.
Perrin de Brichambaut, Marc. 2010. “The Indivisibility of Euro-Atlantic Security.” OSCE.
Portela, Clara. 2021. The EU’s Arms Control Challenge: Bridging Nuclear Divides. Chaillot Paper, 166 (April). Paris: European Union Institute for Security Studies (EUISS).https://doi.org/10.2815/601066.
Reuters. 2023. “Baltic Sea Drills to Focus for First Time on Repelling Russian Attack.” https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/baltic-sea-drills-focus-first-time-repelling-russianattack-2023-09-01/.
———. 2024. “Turkey to Block Minehunter Ships Intended for Ukraine.” https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/turkey-block-uk-minehunter-ships-intendedukraine-2024-01-02/.
Richter, Wolfgang. 2016. Sub-Regional Arms Control for the Baltics: What Is Desirable? What Is Feasible? Deep Cuts Working Paper 8. Hamburg, Germany: Institut für Friedensforschung und Sicherheitspolitik an der Universität Hamburg (IFSH).
Rosa-Hernández, Gabriela. 2023. “How Russia’s Retreat from the Vienna Document Information Exchange Undermines European Security.” Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists (blog). https://thebulletin.org/2023/03/how-russias-retreat-from-thevienna-document-information-exchange-undermines-european-security/.
Savitz, Scott, and Isabelle Winston. 2024. “A Brief Naval Overview of the Baltic Sea Region.” Expert Insights. Santa Monica, CA: RAND Corporation.
Schelling, Thomas C. 1975. “A Framework for the Evaluation of Arms-Control Proposals.” Daedalus 104 (3): 187–200.
Seydi, Süleyman. 2010. The Turkish Straits and the Great Powers : From the Montreux Convention to the Early Cold War, 1936-1947. Analecta Isisiana: Ottoman and Turkish Studies. Piscataway, NJ: Gorgias Press. https://doi.org/10.31826/9781463225506.
Seydi, Süleyman, and Steven Morewood. 2005. “Turkey’s Application of the Montreux Convention in the Second World War.” Middle Eastern Studies 41 (1): 79–101. https://doi.org/10.1080/0026320042000322725.
Shape.Nato.Int. 2025. “Baltic Sentry to Enhance NATO’s Presence in the Baltic Sea.” https:// shape.nato.int/news-releases/baltic-sentry-to-enhance-natos-presence-in-the-balticsea.aspx.
Sweden. 1966. “Proclamation of 3 June 1966 Concerning the Admission to Swedish Territory of Foreign Naval Vessels and Military Aircraft.”
Swistek, Göran, and Michael Paul. 2023. “Geopolitics in the Baltic Sea Region: The ‘Zeitenwende’ in the Context of Critical Maritime Infrastructure, Escalation Threats and the German Willingness to Lead.” 9. SWP Comment. Berlin: Stiftung Wissenschaft und Politik: German Institute for International and Security Affairs.
“The Convention Relating To The Regime Of The Straits And Turkey.” 1923. Lausanne.UCA Kiel. 2023. “Kiel Canal.” https://www.kiel-canal.de/.
Ünlü, Nihan. 2002. The Legal Regime of the Turkish Straits. Brill | Nijhoff. https://doi.org/10.1163/9789004481343.
Zellner, Wolfgang, Olga Oliker, and Steven Pifer. 2020. “A Little of the Old, a Little of the New: A Fresh Approach to Conventional Arms Control in Europe.” 11. Deep Cuts Issue Brief. Hamburg, Germany: Institut für Friedensforschung und Sicherheitspolitik an der Universität Hamburg (IFSH).
Downloads
Published
How to Cite
Issue
Section
License
The published articles are subject to copyright law. All rights are reserved to the “Carol I” National Defense University, regardless of whether all or part of the material are considered, especially the rights to translation, reprinting, re-use of illustrations, quotations, broadcasting through the media, reproduction on microfilms or any other way and storage in data banks. Any replicas without the associated fees are authorized provided the source is acknowledged.