The impact of Russia’s aggresion on reshaping tomorrow’s world Ukraine’s future scenarios, developments, and options


  • Iulian CHIFU



prospective scenarios;, indicators;, inflection points;, game changers


Prospective scenarios (Chifu 2022) are now piling up, on the eve of Ukraine’s announced
counter-offensive to reclaim its territories and create clear strategic advantages in the perspective of any negotiations with Russia (Menon 2023). While the criteria and indicators of short and medium-term development are easier to determine, as is the aspirational goal of Ukraine to gain all its occupied territories (Wallander 2023), there are numerous inflection points that may emerge, just as a number of game-changers are looming, elements that would radically change the reality and the course of the known trend. Taking these factors into consideration, we have drafted an updated outline of Ukraine’s potential future developments, scenarios, and options in the event of a Russian full-scale war of aggression. It is important to note that these developments not only impact Ukraine but also have implications for the post-war global landscape


Aarts, Paul. 1999. ”The Middle East: a region without regionalism or the end of exceptionalism.” Third World Quarterly 20 (5): 911-925.

Adler, Emanuel, and Michael N. Barnett. 1998. Security Communities. Cambridge University Press.

Ash, Timothy Garton. 2023. ”Postimperial Empire. How the War in Ukraine Is Transforming Europe, Foreign Affairs May/June 2023.” Foreign Affairs 102, no.3.

Chifu, Iulian. 2013. „Analiză prospectivă. Experienţa internaţională şi o abordare românească.” Revista Română de Studii de Intelligence, no.10: 167-186.

—. 2014. Prospectives on Ukraine Crisis. Scenarios for a mid-long term evolution. București: Editura Institutului de Științe Politice și Relații Internaționale al Academiei Române.

—. 2021a. „Securitate tehnologică. Un nou domeniul de strictă actualitate a securității viitorului.” Infosfera, no.2: 13-22.

—. 2021b. „Când tehnologia și social media întâlnesc Covid-19. Relativizarea adevărului și

soarta social media.” Romanian Intelligence Studies Review, nr. 25: 100-113.

—. 2022. Studii prospective și metodologii alternative. Eșafodajul de securitate în secolul 21.Vol. 3, Reconfigurarea securității și relațiilor internaționale în secolul XXI. București: RAO.

Fix, Liana, and Michael Kimmage. 2023. ”How China Could Save Putin’s War in Ukraine. The Logic—and Consequences—of Chinese Military Support for Russia.” Foreign Affairs.

Haass, Richard, and Charles Kupchan. 2023. ”The West Needs a New Strategy in Ukraine, A Plan for Getting From the Battlefield to the Negotiating Table,.” Foreign Affairs.

Jones, Seth G. 2023. ”America’s Looming Munitions Crisis. How to Fill the Missile Gap.”

Foreign Affairs.

Kausikan, Bilahari. 2023. ”Navigating the New Age of Great-Power Competition.Statecraft

in the Shadow of the U.S.-Chinese Rivalry.” Foreign Affairs.

Kolesnikov, Andrei. 2023. ”Putin’s Second Front. The War in Ukraine Has Become a Battle for the Russian Psyche.” Foreign Affairs.

Kurtz-Phelan, Dan. 2023. ”How to Avoid a Great-Power War. A Conversation With General Mark Milley.” Foreign Affairs.

Mazarr, Michael J. 2023. ”Why America Still Needs Europe. The False Promise of an “Asia First” Approach.” Foreign Affairs.

Menon, Rajan. 2023. ”Ukraine’s Best Chance. A Successful Offensive Could End the War With Russia.” Foreign Affairs.

Miliband, David. 2023. ”The World Beyond Ukraine. The Survival of the West and the Demands of the Rest.” Foreign Affairs 102, no.3.

Russian Mission. 2023. ”The Concept of Foreign Policy of the Russian Federation.”

Spektor, Matias. 2023. ”In Defense of the Fence Sitters. What the West Gets Wrong About Hedging.” Foreign Affairs 102, no.3.

U.S. European Command. 2023. ”Statement of General Christopher G.Cavoli



Wallander, Celeste A. 2023. ”Opening statement, Office of the Secretary of Defense, before the 118-th Congress Committee of Armed Services,.”




How to Cite

CHIFU, I. (2023). The impact of Russia’s aggresion on reshaping tomorrow’s world Ukraine’s future scenarios, developments, and options. BULLETIN OF "CAROL I" NATIONAL DEFENCE UNIVERSITY, 12(2), 7–15.