THREE GEOPOLITICAL SCENARIOS WITH GLOBAL IMPACT

Abstract

Although it seems chaotic, the international environment is shaped by predictable forces, nurtured by interest and lust for power and domination. However, sometimes, as Nassim Nicholas Taleb pointed out, "black swans" can happen, meaning events that come as a total surprise and have a major effect. This article refers to three predictable geopolitical developments with significant impact on the global power competition, namely: the re-election of Donald J. Trump as US President; Chinese global financial initiative, including a new Asian bloc currency and a new gold/currency benchmark; and the extension of the asymmetric war between Israel and HAMAS. Three foreseeable geopolitical dynamics, which can however be influenced by chance (“black swans”). The study is linear, starting with the hypotheses, continuing with data collection, data analysis and synthesis and ending with conclusions. The research methods belong to geopolitics and combine data analysis and synthesis with inductive-deductive and ambispective methods. The data used are exclusively from open sources and include official documents, literature and journalistic sources.