STRATEGIC BALANCING IN TRANSITION: REASSESSING ARMENIA’S FOREIGN AND SECURITY POLICY PARADIGM

Abstract

This article examines the transformation of Armenia’s foreign and security policy in the context of the post-2020 regional order in the South Caucasus. It argues that Armenia is transitioning from a model of single-patron security dependence toward a strategy of diversification, driven by the erosion of alliance reliability and growing asymmetric threats. The study demonstrates that this shift represents a structural adaptation rather than an ideological realignment, as Armenia seeks to expand its strategic autonomy without fully abandoning existing institutional ties. Using neorealist balance-of-power theory and small-state behavior literature as its theoretical framework, the article employs qualitative case-study analysis, process tracing, and document analysis covering the period 2020–2025. The findings highlight both the opportunities created by diversified partnerships and the constraints imposed by continued economic dependence and regional isolation. The article’s originality lies in conceptualising Armenia’s policy change as adaptive balancing under constraint, offering analytical utility for understanding small-state strategies in volatile security environments.