THE IMPACT OF THE UKRAINIAN REFUGEE WAVE ON REGIONAL SECURITY. RISK ASSESSMENT AND EVOLVING SCENARIOS

Abstract

In today’s society, instability and conflict are growing more prevalent, with citizens fearing for what is next, for what some state actor might do, and its impact on our lives and our children. The ongoing Russian Ukrainian conflict presents a gloomy scenario in which all our beliefs, as European citizens, seem only to survive as glimpses of hope. The probability of such an impactful conflict, and the unlikely military conventionalism related to it makes every citizen of any European country to doubt the safety net in which we thought to be, so far. The most devastating effect, specific and real at this moment, of the near conflict in Europe is an economic one, since a new refugee wave threatens to destabilize all societal equilibrium. On the other side of the barricade, Russia's position is mainly due to the internal challenges it faces, as its economy is destabilized by United States sanctions. Low oil prices at the end of the second decade of the this century is causing serious economic problems in the Russian Federation. Thus, the state faces a rather weak demographic outlook in the future, which is why it is looking for solutions for expansion and evolution, both globally and as a major regional player.