STRATEGIES XXI: The Complex and Dynamic Nature of the Security Environment

DYNAMICS OF THE RUSSIAN-UKRAINEAN WAR. AN ANALYSIS OF THE IMPACT ON FUTURE SECURITY AND DEFENCE POLICY

Vasile Cătălin GOLOP — 2024-06-28

In the context of geopolitical developments and international tensions, the war in Ukraine is a crucial contemporary reference point, capturing the attention of the international community by its complexity and scale. This conflict, which began in 2014 following the annexation of Crimea by the Russian Federation and intensified in the eastern regions of Ukraine, has generated a series of profound transformations in the landscape of security and international relations. Detailed analysis of the dynamics of the Russian-Ukrainian war becomes essential for understanding its long-term implications for security and defence policies. This analytical process is not limited to investigating the conflict itself, but extends to assessing how events in Ukraine have shaped and will continue to shape national and international security strategies. Shaping future security and defence policy in Europe, with direct implications for Romania, given its position on the border with Ukraine and its membership of NATO, should be based on a comprehensive and coordinated approach.

HUMAN LOSSES IN MODERN WAR – CASE STUDY IN THE CURRENT RUSSIAN -UKRAINIAN WAR

Viorel ORDEANU — 2024-06-28

Information provided by the war propaganda, both of Russia and Ukraine, published in the mass media, exaggerates the losses of the enemy and understates their own in order to maintain the morale of the fighters and their population, but also the support of military operations’ financers. This action is also supported by censorship (military and media), but the effects, on those who receive them, can be different, depending on the veracity of the information and the goals pursued by the two actors, as well as the public beliefs. Human losses of the belligerents in the Russo-Ukrainian war, even if they are not equal in quantity, are usually comparable and even necessary to be compared in order to study the tactics and strategy used, as well as the possibility of each of them to continue the fight. The human costs of war significantly influence the achievement of victory. Also, for military planners, it is important to know the real situation, both for designing and conducting operations and for organizing and equipping the health service that supports combat actions. If there is no exhaustive estimate of the losses of the Ukrainian forces, the reason is that they are kept secret by their officials. Through indirect analyses, OSINT and medical intelligence, we present a situation as close as possible to reality.

ANALYSING RESERVE FORCES AS AN ENABLER FACTOR FOR ACTIVE MILITARY

Adriana BRUMARU — 2024-06-28

The continuum degradation of the international security environment represents a negative effect of the unbalanced power that followed the end of the Cold War. With only one superpower controlling the international order it is almost impossible to prevent and manage numerous crisis and conflicts which happened all around the world at any time. Therefore, the idea of changing the current world order acquires greater and greater valences in the mind of regional powers. At the same time, the military conflict evolves and is highly influenced by the new risks and threats that appeared at national, regional and international security environments. Recent events demonstrate that we have to fight today wars and be prepared for the tomorrow ones at the same time. Preparing the population for defense and, implicitly, developing a culture of security within civil society, alongside the revitalization of the voluntary reserve, are vital and the only elements that can contribute to harnessing the society's volunteerism and accessing the potential available at this moment in Romanian society for achieving resilience and acceptable internal security. This is essential for fulfilling the objective of a possible regeneration of the active military force. Therefore, the role of reserve forces and reservists, including volunteer ones, in this new operating environment is continuing increasing and their importance inside national military forces acquires a new connotation for more and more missions. Apart for being just a human resource to replace lost active-duty personnel, reservists can enhance the resilience at national and military levels and fill up gaps or niche positions. This material will analyse how reserve forces were used in the current wars in line with new security environment paradigm and will propose some real ways ahead for the Romanian Armed Forces to develop such enabling operational resources.

STUDY ON THE THREATS, VULNERABILITIES AND RISKS OF THE TRANSFORMATION OF THE ROMANIAN ARMY FROM THE PERSPECTIVE OF DEFENSE RESOURCE MANAGEMENT

Simona-Daniela BORDEA — 2024-06-28

States seeking strategic superiority through technological superiority must go through a substantial organizational transformation that increases adaptability. Today, states move from technological to strategic superiority by achieving organizational superiority. Organizational transformations translate superior technology into superior strategic performance because the organization is itself a form of technology. Moreover, the importance of organizational change increases during periods of technological innovation. In order to face the common challenges in the Euro-Atlantic space, the Romanian Army works persistently to outline its profile in the allied plan, through increasingly active and consistent participation in NATO decisions, measures and missions, with a view to solving conflicts and crises, in different areas of the world, to the fight against international terrorism, and at the same time to the perpetuation of the military transformation process.

METHODS FOR MODERNIZING THE HUMAN RESOURCES OF THE ARMED FORCES

Elena-Alexandra MAZILU — 2024-06-28

The modernization of human resources within the Romanian Army must be one of the main priorities set by the commanders of military units, given its crucial importance in ensuring national security. The constant increase in service responsibilities, difficult environmental conditions, fatigue and poor physical, mental and emotional health are some of the main factors that human resources management tries to integrate in a way that leads technically and organisationally to the efficiency of the activity. Digitisation and leadership are two distinct, but complementary ways of modernising human resources in an organisation. The purpose of this article is to highlight some methods of modernising the armed forces reporting to the evolvment of the national security policies using documentation and literature study. By combining digitisation with modern leadership, organisations can create an efficient, innovative and adaptable working environment. Such an environment encourage a way of work where human resources to be valued and encouraged to achieve outstanding performance.

DISCUSSING HYBRID WARFARE VIA SOCIAL PSYCHOLOGY: THE CASE OF DISINFORMATION AND PROPAGANDA EXPLOITING MINORITY GROUPS

Alexandra SARCINSCHI — 2024-06-28

This paper argues that minority issues are often exploited in hybrid warfare, serving as both subject and target of disinformation and propaganda. The ultimate aim is to polarise society, weaken cohesion and even trigger conflict in the countries of interest to the aggressor. The paper discusses studies on disinformation, propaganda and minorities and applies the lens of social psychology to identify key characteristics of minorities that can be targeted by third parties in hybrid warfare. Finally, it briefly examines how the Russian Federation is using these tools in its hybrid war against Ukraine and other democratic states. As part of a larger work in progress, the paper does not offer at this stage a complete and tested analytic model, but signals the need for an approach that goes beyond simple debates about disinformation and propaganda narratives towards the socio-psychological mechanisms that make them efficient.

THE SECURITY OF EU CITIZENS WHEN CONFRONTED WITH CLIMATE CHANGE AND DISINFORMATION

Ana-Maria, ȚUGULEA — 2024-06-28

The paper explores the evolving challenges of disinformation campaigns and climate change migration within the European Union (EU) and NATO. It highlights the urgent need for proactive and coordinated responses to safeguard democratic societies and governance systems. Disinformation, propagated through digital platforms, threatens democratic processes and public discourse. Meanwhile, climate change exacerbates societal upheaval and migration patterns, posing complex security implications. The paper emphasizes the imperative of integrating environmental considerations into conflict resolution strategies and leveraging artificial intelligence (AI) technologies to counter disinformation effectively. By elucidating the multifaceted nature of these threats, the paper underscores the importance of collective action to address climate-related security challenges and preserve international stability. Ultimately, it calls for comprehensive strategies that promote media literacy, enhance digital resilience, and foster inclusive dialogue to mitigate the adverse effects of disinformation and climate change migration.

THE CURRENT INTERDEPENDENCE OF SECURITY SECTORS ON INTERNATIONAL LEVEL

Ilie IFTIME — 2024-06-28

The content of this article outlines a different and complete picture of how the security sectors (political, military, economic, societal and environmental) interact today. Therefore, using contextual analysis as a research method, it will aim to generate detailed answers to the following research question: How the growing dynamics of the international relations, the multidimensionality confrontation environments of actors and the rise of high-tech affect the interdependence between security sectors? Thus, I will determine the causality between the three factors and the interdependence of the security sectors through an analysis of recent security issues from different security complexes. Therefore, the aim of the article is to highlight the steady increase of reciprocity within the security sectors of the respective actor on the international stage, but also within the security complexes in which it is embedded. It will show that a security problem, regardless of the sector in which it is triggered, often overflows the other sectors and even to other actors. Today, states are so dependent on each other that often the analysis itself and the resolution of the security problems cannot be done independently. However, the threshold of acceptance and the level at which a common security problem is felt differs from one state to another, depending on specific factors that will be detailed in the article.

FDI SCREENING AND ITS ROLE IN PREVENTING HYBRID THREATS. CASE STUDY – ROMANIA

Iustina MACOVEI — 2024-06-28

Since 2019, the EU has stepped up the adoption of measures to protect the internal market and the economies of the member states from security and public order risks. Thus, Regulation (EU) 2019/452 of the European Parliament and of the Council of 19 March 2019 establishing a framework for examining foreign direct investments (FDI) in the Union was adopted. Combating hybrid threats has become, in 2020, a strategic priority at EU level. This article analyzes the legal framework and the changes made in the context of the proposed revision of Regulation 2019/452, as part of the European Commission's initiative to improve the economic security of the Union. The article also presents a case study on the particular situation of the FDI examination mechanism applicable in Romania. The purpose of this study is to analyze the legislative provisions, the specific elements compared to the situation in other member states, the institutional framework and the decision-making flow.

COMPLEX ANALYSIS OF CRYPTOCURRENCIES AND THEIR IMPLICATIONS IN THE CONTEXT OF MONEY LAUNDERING AND TERRORISM FINANCING

George-Gabriel NISTORESCU — 2024-06-28

This study investigates the potential role of Bitcoin in terrorism financing by analyzing the decentralization and anonymity features of cryptocurrencies that facilitate illegal transactions. In the context of delayed regulatory capacity regarding innovations in financial technology, the study explores new opportunities for terrorism financing. International reports, such as that of the financial action task force on money laundering, highlight the growing risks of terrorism financing associated with virtual currencies like Bitcoin. While terrorist financing based on emerging technologies enables terrorist organizations to swiftly transfer funds globally, this phenomenon simultaneously increases the difficulties in combating terrorism financing at the national level. In light of this technological revolution and the expansion of terrorism, the study focuses on the interaction between Bitcoin and terrorism, exploring whether terrorist attacks significantly contribute to Bitcoin price fluctuations and to what extent the cryptocurrency may evolve into a currency used for terrorism financing.

CRISIS MANAGEMENT IN THE EUROPEAN UNION PERSPECTIVE: FROM DIALECTICAL EVOLUTIONS TO A DISTINCT APPROACH

Ruslana GROSU — 2024-06-28

The article presents some ideas and reasonings about the acquisition by the European Union of the role of recognized actor in the field of crisis management. The author elucidates a progress in the development of the political-legal and institutional framework for crisis management, adopting a comprehensive approach that combines diplomacy, prevention, and civil and military interventions. The research contains an analysis of the path towards the development of a distinct European Union approach to crisis management. The author identified the criticisms of the EU in this area and delineated the significant challenges facing the EU on various dimensions, including the diversity of member states' interests and limited resources in certain areas. The perspectives include the need for continued adaptability, strengthening of response capabilities, and a strong commitment to multilateralism and international cooperation. Through these combined efforts, the EU can strengthen its role as an effective global actor in international crisis management.

THE EU'S ROLE IN THE TRANSNISTRIA CONFLICT SETTLEMENT

Petru MIHALCEA — 2024-06-28

The end of the Cold War allowed many Eastern European countries to claim their right to self-determination. This event has created challenges to these states' sovereignty and territorial integrity. The Republic of Moldova was one of them, whose integrity was challenged by a separatist entity supported by the Russian Federation, which ended in a frozen conflict. In the struggle for reintegration, Moldova asked the international community for support, mainly the European Union and NATO, whose values are close to its way of development.

WEAPONIZATION OF HISTORICAL TRAUMA NARRATIVES IN HUNGARY, RUSSIA AND TURKIYE, AND THEIR POTENTIAL IMPACT ON INTERNATIONAL SECURITY

Matei BLĂNARU — 2024-06-28

In this paper we point out the significant impact that historical trauma narratives may have on the current international security environment, especially in our area. To this end, we will analyze the impact of historical trauma narratives spread by the elites and governments of Hungary, Russia and Turkiye, which are meant to justify and fuel policies, attitudes and strategies that have a potential negative impact on regional security. This exact same type of narrative has fuelled the justification for Russia's invasion of Ukraine, and are also fuelling aggressive and revisionist foreign policies from Ankara and Budapest, creating a climate of tension and security risks in our region. While there are definitely various real historical traumas and suffering that need to be properly addressed and reconciled with throughout the world, there are also cynical weaponizations of these traumas, manipulated by politicians and academics alike, for personal, political, and geopolitical benefits.

A MIRROR ANALYSIS OF ANTI-SEMITISM VERSUS RADICALIZATION: CONCEPTUAL ELEMENTS AND GENERATED RISKS

Iulia-Mihaela DRĂGAN — 2024-06-28

The outbreak of the Gaza conflict and the Israel-Hamas war demonstrated that a regional crisis can psychologically and socially impact society at an international level, noting the increase in anti-Semitic perceptions as well as the anticipation of a new trend of radicalization inspired by the Hamas ideology, directed against Israeli or Jewish objectives. These phenomena, as a result of technological dynamics and the digital role, can impact and distort the perception of individuals regardless of the region they belong to, generating high risks regarding the preservation of democratic values and principles and social order. In this sense, this article aims to extract the conceptual elements characteristic of the two phenomena in order to develop a comparative analysis that reflects in the mirror similarities and differences regarding their manifestation. Thus, the purpose of the paper is to raise society's awareness of the risks generated by the typology of these manifestations as well as facilitate the identification of early warning signals in relation to the upward trend generated at the international level.

SINGAPORE: BALANCING BETWEEN WEST AND EAST

Mihai VLAICU — 2024-06-28

Due to its location at the intersection between the spheres of influence of multiple regional players, as well as its socio-cultural composition, Singapore had to conduct a diplomatic policy of balancing in order to secure its existence and develop its armed forces. The purpose of this paper is to evaluate the defence policy of the state of Singapore, the characteristics of its military cooperation with its main partners and whether the diplomatic policy of balancing diplomatic relationships with powerful countries, motivated by diverging goals, impacts the military development of Singapore. The research method used is the observation of the military diplomatic relations of Singapore’s armed forces, as well as the of its military acquisition policies.

NAVIGATING THE TURBULENCE: UNRAVELING THE NEXUS BETWEEN TRANSPORT INFRASTRUCTURE, CONFLICT AND RESILIENCE

Maria CONSTANTINESCU — 2024-06-28

This paper explores the intricate relationship between transport infrastructure, military operations, and national resilience in the context of today's interconnected world, highlighting the crucial role of transport systems in modern conflicts and the importance of building resilience through robustness, redundancy, resourcefulness, and rapidity in transport systems. In this respect, policymakers should consider integrating resilience considerations into national security and infrastructure development policies, emphasizing international collaboration and a holistic approach to address the complex challenges posed by disruptions in transport infrastructure.

THE TERMINOLOGICAL CONUNDRUM REGARDING INFORMATION WEAPONISATION

Daniela LICĂ — 2024-06-28

The phenomenon of information weaponisation has become a pressing challenge of our times, having multiple and pervasive effects with security implications, negatively impacting democratic processes such as elections, and even everyday life within the society. The multitude of terms to express the use of information as a weapon and the information disorder have resulted in a terminological conundrum. Studying the literature, inconsistencies unveiled regarding the definition and usage of key terms. This aspect may pose a problem for people studying the phenomenon, as well as for experts and decision makers, and last but not least the public opinion, since a common understanding and a consistent use of key notions are crucial with regard to acknowledging various types of information manipulation and being able to counter this scourge. The current paper has two main research objectives, namely to bring forward and illustrate the inconsistencies identified in the study of the literature regarding the definition and use of key concepts, as well as to provide some possible explanations for the challenges they pose. Thus, the study focuses on the systemic and punctual analysis of the literature, the theoretical and practical intersection related to terminology, and the terminological study problematisation.